XI International Conference “Black Sea Grain: Expanding Horizons” resume
2014-04-15 16:42:34
On April 9-10, 2014 in Kiev annual International Conference “Black Sea Grain-2014” was held, organized by Consulting agency “UkrAgroConsult”. Company’s 20-year experience in agribusiness consulting allowed "UkrAgroConsult" to hold the event at the highest level. Despite current difficult political situation in Ukraine, the Conference gave its delegates a positive stimulus for development of business strategies - more than 430 participants of 310 companies from 51 countries visited the Conference - confirming its status as one of the world's leading grain forums. Traditionally, Black Sea Grain conference served as a great platform to unite Ukrainian and international agribusiness representatives. Presentations made by 23 agri experts highlighted the most urgent issues and prospects of the global and Black Sea grains and oilseeds market.
The first Conference day was devoted to the trends in grain and oilseed sector of Ukraine. In the course of the conference works, speakers shared projections of future harvest, gave an estimation of new season's export potential and analyzed issues of transport infrastructure. In addition, there were discussions of the agricultural sector financing and the legal aspects of the agricultural market.
According to UkrAgroConsult’s grain expert Elizaveta Malyshko, in 2014 Ukrainian grain crop will amount to 57 million tons. This estimate is based on the fact of little death rate of winter crops (about 5 %), which has laid a good foundation for the future harvest, as well as on expectations of the same size of areas under corn on the last year's level. Grain export potential of Ukraine in 2014/15 can reach 28.3 MMT compared to 30.7 MMT in the current season. Corn exports could reach 16.5 MMT (compared to 19 MMT in 2013), wheat - 8.8 MMT (9 MMT in 2013) and barley - 2.4 MMT (2.4 MMT).
Assessing the current season, UkrAgroConsult’s oilseed expert, Yulia Garkavenko, believes that with sunflower harvest of 10.7 MMT, Ukraine could export 3.9 MMT of sunflower oil (with oil production of 4.4 MMT). However results of the first half of the season indicate a likelihood of large carryover stocks of suflower and sunoil, the amount of which can reach 1 MMT. Favorite of the new season will become soy, with yields surpassing grain yields. Yulia Garkavenko estimates soybean harvest at 3.1-3.3 MMT, which is 20-25 % higher compared to the previous season.
The second day of discussions consisted of reports on the prospects of global production and consumption of agricultural products. The main topics were the analysis of the new driving forces of the global market in 2014/15 season, the growing role of China in the commodities markets, prospects and opportunities for the Black Sea region. Well-known agri expert Dan Basse pointed out increasing competition in the global grain trade on end markets. The U.S. share in world trade of corn, wheat and soybeans has been decreasing the last few years and now is around 30%, whereas 10 years ago it stood at 42%. The expert also stressed the fact that corn exports from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine can be seen growing steadily, which now almost is 65 % of the world feed crops trade.
Chinese specialist Renault Quach noted that Ukraine has all the chances to gain a foothold for expansion of its exports to China. Expert said that in 2014 Ukraine is likely to force out American corn and become the main supplier of this product to the Chinese market due to competitive prices and China's rejection to use GMO crops. Good opportunities for Ukrainian vegoils exports are also projected, as China has imported about 400 thousand tons of sunflower oil in 2013.
Director General of UkrAgroConsult, Sergey Feofilov, in his analysis of the role of Ukraine in the global agri market, informed that in the next 1-2 years Ukrainian business will have to use new effective strategies for the agricultural sector. Strategies that are currently being developed, will make market in the future, and UkrAgroConsult company is actively involved in the development and adaptation of such strategies for agricultural enterprises in Ukraine and within the Black Sea region. Sergey Feofilov also announced a new project of UkrAgroConsult - mobile app "Black Sea Grain & Oil", allowing users to keep track of the latest daily market events of agrimarket in the real time. To get acquainted with the product, please visit the company’s website.
The Conference finished on a positive note. Participants got not only the most relevant and professional information on trends in global agricultural business, but also reached a number of short-and long-term business arrangements. UkrAgroConsult is always open for cooperation and looks forward to welcome everyone at the Black Sea Grain conference next year!