Ukraine exports 5.4 million tons of grain since start of season
The Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation estimates grain export volumes at 5.4 million tons since the beginning of 2011/2012 marketing year, Director General of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation Serhiy Stoyanov has said.
"Since the beginning of 2011/2012 marketing year (as of November 9 - Ed.) grain export from Ukraine made up about 5.4 million tons," he said. Including, over 2 million tons of wheat, 1.4 million tons of corn and about 1.8 million tons of barley were exported.
At the same time, Serhiy Stoyanov noted that for the nearest months, differently directed trends will influence the situation with grain export from Ukraine on different cultures. According to him, on the corn market, the situation of "light deficit" is formed in the world, which, if projected on the corn prices on the domestic market of Ukraine, will not have a substantial influence due to large, unseen before, internal supply of 21 million tons.
At the same time, the Director General of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation reminded that the port and railway logistics of Ukraine can provide for only a certain export volume and understanding of all this will hamper a growth of purchase prices for corn for export. "Figuratively speaking, they will "ceremoniously and sedately dispose of" corn," he said.
As regards the situation on the world wheat market, Stoyanov noted that here, on the contrary, the situation is formed under which carry-over stocks as of July 1, 2012, may appear to be record-making over recent 10 years, which will hamper demand, which is small, for our wheat on the part importers and make a pull down impact on internal prices.
At the same time, there is another vector of influence on the wheat market, which will have an opposite action and becomes ever stronger, the state of sowings, primarily, of winter wheat. "I think that summing up of those vectors will give some rise to internal prices for high-quality wheat grain in Ukraine in one to two months," the expert prognosticated.
At the same time, this rising will be slight, since potential buyers (flour millers, exporters) understand that this wheat will not escape from them due to rather weak external demand.